The untold AI story isn’t disruption. It’s how incumbents win, again.
The prevailing narrative around AI focuses heavily on disruption — the idea that nimble startups will upend legacy industries. But the more compelling, underreported story is this: AI may be the greatest opportunity in a generation for incumbents to rethink and redefine how they compete and win.
In a recent episode of the American Optimist podcast, Sam Lessin—an early Facebook executive who served as the company’s Vice President of Product Management from 2010 to 2014—described AI not as a disruptive force in the classic sense, but as “more.” More compute. More capability. More leverage for those already in a position to use it well.
That distinction matters. History shows that when technology adds leverage instead of rewriting the rules, incumbents tend to win.
Lessin mentions the mobile revolution as a recent example. Mobile “disruption” didn’t wipe the slate clean; it expanded it. Apple, at the time of the iPhone launch in 2007, was on a promising turnaround — riding momentum from the iPod and a revitalized Mac business. But it wasn’t yet dominant. But Apple recognized and seized the opportunity in mobile computing. The iPhone changed everything. Its market capitalization grew from roughly $50 billion in 2007 to over $3 trillion today. Google’s mobile strategy, especially through Android and YouTube, entrenched its dominance even further. That era didn’t produce a new generation of giants. It scaled the ones who were already poised to benefit.
We’re seeing the same pattern now with AI.
Big Tech will continue to benefit, but so will industry leaders who act quickly and wisely. The advantage will go to companies that integrate AI into what they already do well, especially those with access to proprietary data that no one else can replicate. In AI, proprietary data is everything. The more specific, contextual, and exclusive the data, the more valuable and defensible the model becomes.
This also includes what I’d call “incumbent startups” — companies that have been building real products for years and are now in a prime position to apply AI in meaningful, effective ways.
A Practical Example: Avathon
One such company I’ve had experience with is Avathon. Founded in 2013, Avathon uses AI to secure physical infrastructure by working with existing video camera systems. Their platform helps detect unauthorized access, safety issues, and other unexpected events in real time.
Avathon has spent over a decade refining its product through consistent iteration and customer deployment. What makes it stand out is its ability to integrate seamlessly into operational environments. No major behavior change was required by me, my team, or other stakeholders. It just worked.
That kind of quiet effectiveness is what separates long-term winners from short-term noise – companies that are winning customers every day and iterating rapidly with AI-enhanced or revolutionized product offerings.
Where the Opportunity Really Is
The companies best positioned to thrive in the AI era aren’t focused on reinvention. They’re asking more strategic questions.
- How can we integrate AI into our culture and operations to enhance what already works?
- How can we support our teams with better tools rather than adding friction?
- How do we move fast enough that we don’t get left behind?
The smartest organizations are already exploring how to adopt AI in ways that align with their values and workflows. They see that the real risk isn’t hype or wasted effort. It’s standing still while competitors figure it out first and pull ahead.
And while the headlines may spotlight new startups, the more powerful outcomes will happen inside organizations that already have three critical advantages:
- Proprietary data no one else can access, create or maintain
- Longstanding customer relationships that feed product development and operational enhancement
- Operational understanding that allows AI to be applied where it truly matters
Final Thought
AI isn’t resetting the game. It is amplifying it. The next wave of value creation will come from companies that already know what works and are ready to scale it with intelligence.
Who already has the pieces, and can now put them together more effectively with AI?
That’s where the quiet giants will be built.
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